The statistics are now in from WECAR (The Windsor Essex County Association of REALTORS ®) for September 2023. Is a balanced market finally in our sights? Let’s take a look!
The new average sale price for September 2023 was $536,927. That’s a +3.05% increase from this time a year ago and a decrease of -4.39% from the previous month (August 2023 average price was $561,585). *(The Median sale price for September 2023 was $503,750 which is a +4.79% increase y/y).
There were 950 new listings in September 2023 compared to 986 new listings in August 2023. This was an increase of 6.26% from the same time last year and a decrease of -3.65% from the previous month.
There were 353 sales in September 2023 compared with 434 sales in August 2023 which was a -15.95% decrease compared to a year ago and a decrease of -18.66% from the previous month.
MOST POPULAR HOME STYLES (September 2023)
1st – Bungalow (92) avg price $452,871
2nd – 2 Storey (53) avg price $709,470
3rd – Ranch (49) avg price $574,557
4th – Raised Ranch (37) avg price $601,685
5th – 1.5 Storey (36) avg price $387,342
Wondering what sales activity in your price category looked like in September 2023? here’s the breakdown:
SALES BY PRICE CATEGORY (September 2023)
$0 – $159,900 (3)
$160,000 – $299,999 (42)
$300,000 – $449,999 (95)
$450,000 – $599,999 (127)
$600,000 – $749,999 (66)
$750,000 – $899,999 (25)
$900,000 – $1,199,999 (14)
$1,200,000 – 1,399,999 (3)
$1,400,000 + (2)
If you’re wondering what the September 2023 listings/sales looked like where you live in Essex County, here’s the breakdown:
Listings vs Sales by Area (September 2023)
00 – Windsor, LaSalle, Tecumseh – (List 548 – Sold 225)
10 – Amherstburg – (List 79 – Sold 19)
20 – Colchester / Harrow – (List 32 – Sold 16)
30 – Kingsville- (List 58 – Sold 15)
40 – Leamington – (List 45 – Sold 13)
50 – Wheatley – (List 8 – Sold 1)
60 – Lakeshore West – (List 54 – Sold 23)
70 – Essex – (List 28 – Sold 19)
80 – Lakeshore East – (List 22 – Sold 3)
90 – Tilbury – (List 27 – Sold 10)
Here’s what the average price has looked like for the month of September historically:
2023 – $536,927
2022 – $523,928
2021 – $552,186
2020 – $433,423
2019 – $329,238
2018 – $301,765
2017 – $253,465
2016 – $217,439
Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcements
2023
October 25, 2023 (TBA)
September 6, 2023 (Target 5.00%) (no change)
July 12, 2023 (Target 5.00%) (+0.25%)
June 7, 2023 (Target 4.75%) (+0.25%)
April 12, 2023 (Target 4.50%) (no change)
March 8, 2023 (Target 4.50%) (no change)
January 25, 2023 (Target 4.50%) (+0.25%)
2022
December 7, 2022 (Target 4.25%) (+0.50%)
October 26, 2022 (Target 3.75%) (+0.50%)
September 7, 2022 (Target 3.25%) (+0.75%)
July 13, 2022 (Target 2.50%) (+1.00%)
June 1, 2022 (Target 1.50%) (+0.50%)
April 13, 2022 (Target 1.00%) (+0.50%)
March 2, 2022 (Target 0.50%) (+0.25%)
January 26, 2022 (Target 0.25%) (no change)
Canadian Inflation (Target 2%)
2023
July 2023 (3.3%)
June 2023 (2.8%)
May 2023 (3.4%)
April 2023 (4.4%)
March 2023 (4.3%)
February 2023 (5.2%)
January 2023 (5.9%)
2022
December 2022 (6.3%)
November 2022 (6.8%)
October 2022 (6.9%)
September 2022 (6.9%)
August 2022 (7.0%)
July 2022 (7.6%)
June 2022 (8.1%)
May 2022 (7.7%)
April 2022 (6.8%)
March 2022 (6.7%)
February 2022 (5.7%)
January 2022 (5.1%)
Is it a Buyer’s or Seller’s Market?
Well, isn’t this a tale of polar opposites. The market status definition shifts depending on metrics used but one thing is for certain, both poles are flirting with a Balanced Market.
We continue to struggle with low inventory in Windsor/Essex for a variety of reasons. At 3.7 months of inventory this metric indicates a “Seller’s Market” (however, at 4 months of inventory we would be in a Balanced Market). We’re getting much closer to an official balanced market than we’ve been in a very long time.
When considering the sales to new listings ratio metric (SNLR), with September at 39.8% this indicates that we are in a “Buyer’s Market”… just barely, (anything under 40.0% is a Buyer’s Market). We were balanced last month using this metric and have slipped just under the threshold for September.
That’s not at all confusing, how can it be both a Buyer and Seller’s Market? Overall, the months of inventory metric provides a more accurate view of the market than the sales to new listings ratio, especially if not adjusting the SNLR for seasonality. SNLR is also affected by conditions where there is so little inventory that it constrains sales (you can’t sell what you don’t have). The reality is that we are on the doorstep of a balanced market, which with some additional activity would be good for both Buyers and Sellers.
To Summarize ….
Are the rate increases that the BoC implemented working? Yes and No. Inflation rose twice in the last two months (from 2.8% in June to 3.3% in July and then 4.0% in August), this is the opposite effect we are hoping for with regards to inflation. However, the increase in interest rates definitely is affecting the real estate/housing segment. Qualification rates are now higher making it more challenging for first time buyers and many move-up buyers are finding that an increase in purchase price and monthly payments that they had expected would get them a much nicer home, ends up getting them the same home they have now at a much higher cost. Expectations by many economists indicate another rate increase at the October 25th rate announcement by the BoC unless inflation takes a drastic plunge at the October 17th inflation announcement.
So, the story of the month is, yes inventory is still low, but sales are further outpacing listings in a negative way. What does this look like on the ground? Turn-key, ready to go and realistically priced homes are selling quickly, with many multiple offer scenarios still taking place. List-low, sell-high pricing strategies are still being used at a smaller percentage of sales than previously and mostly in the lower price point segments of the marketplace.
Unfortunately, financial corrections take time and more economic pain is inevitable. It’s unlikely that rates will begin to come down until apprx. 2025 according to experts and we may see rates go higher still in the short term. The reality is that people still need to move for a variety of reasons. If you can find a home that you can qualify for and you like (it may not be your dream home for now), this may very well still be a good time to do so unless you have the luxury of waiting for the possibility of lower rates. However, lower rates alone don’t complete the picture. If the economy begins to improve generally so does consumer confidence and a high probability of increasing home prices due to demand which would offset the benefit of lower rates. Rents are still high and continue to climb along with low vacancy.
A little good news for buyers … there are definitely some good buys happening in the new construction segment of the market. Some builders have inventory on the books of closings that for whatever reason could not be complete by the Buyers and also some new developments that Builders are anxious to get started on with appealing introductory pre-construction pricing. Definitely worth looking at if you are shopping at the higher end of the market.
Does all of this information apply to everyone?
Real Estate is very difficult to generalize. While averages are great for painting a picture of the general health of the marketplace, many factors are present that determine market value including location, timing/season, pandemic status, condition of home, neighbourhood etc. I would be happy to sit down with you for a free, no obligation consultation and discuss your specific, unique situation.
Call me at 226-347-6945 or email: steve@steveblais.com
www.SteveBlais.com
Steve Blais
Sales Representative – RE/MAX Preferred Realty Ltd. – Brokerage
Team General Manager, Angie Goulet and Associates
*Median Sales Price is when you take all of the sale prices listed in numerical order and pick the price in the exact middle of the list, if there is an even number of sales, it is the average of the two middle prices.
