October 2023 Residential Real Estate Market Update for Windsor/Essex County

The new average sale price for October 2023 was $530,223. That’s a -1.98% decrease from this time a year ago and a decrease of -1.25% from the previous month (September 2023 average price was $535,927). *(The Median sale price for October 2023 was $501,000 which is a +0.20% increase y/y).

There were 917 new listings in October 2023 compared to 950 new listings in September 2023. This was an increase of 18.94% from the same time last year and a decrease of -3.74% from the previous month.

There were 367 sales in October 2023 compared with 353 sales in September 2023 which was a -4.92% decrease compared to a year ago and an increase of +3.97% from the previous month.

1st – Bungalow (91) avg price $431,180

2nd – 2 Storey (58) avg price $667,917

3rd – Ranch (50) avg price $595,787

4th – 1.5 Storey (47) avg price $418,836

5th – Raised Ranch (27) avg price $615,016

$0 – $159,900 (2)

$160,000 – $299,999 (39)

$300,000 – $449,999 (108)

$450,000 – $599,999 (132)

$600,000 – $749,999 (69)

$750,000 – $899,999 (26)

$900,000 – $1,199,999 (13)

$1,200,000 – 1,399,999 (3)

$1,400,000 + (3)

00 – Windsor, LaSalle, Tecumseh – (List 555 – Sold 231)

10 – Amherstburg – (List 63 – Sold 29)

20 – Colchester / Harrow – (List 25 – Sold 10)

30 – Kingsville- (List 41 – Sold 15)

40 – Leamington – (List 46 – Sold 21)

50 – Wheatley – (List 5 – Sold 3)

60 – Lakeshore West – (List 54 – Sold 15)

70 – Essex – (List 37 – Sold 14)

80 – Lakeshore East – (List 31 – Sold 12)

90 – Tilbury – (List 24 – Sold 10)

2023 – $530,223

2022 – $542,707

2021 – $566,857

2020 – $428,276

2019 – $341,848

2018 – $311,456

2017 – $255,672

2016 – $230,754

October 25, 2023 (Target 5.00%) (no change)

September 6, 2023 (Target 5.00%) (no change)

July 12, 2023 (Target 5.00%) (+0.25%)

June 7, 2023 (Target 4.75%) (+0.25%)

April 12, 2023 (Target 4.50%) (no change)

March 8, 2023 (Target 4.50%) (no change)

January 25, 2023 (Target 4.50%) (+0.25%)

October 2023 (TBA)

September 2023 (3.8%)

August 2023 (4.0%)

July 2023 (3.3%)

June 2023 (2.8%)

May 2023 (3.4%)

April 2023 (4.4%)

March 2023 (4.3%)

February 2023 (5.2%)

January 2023 (5.9%)

We continue to struggle with low inventory in Windsor/Essex. At 3.3 months of inventory this metric indicates a “Seller’s market” (at 4 months of inventory we would be in a Balanced market). Using this metric we are moving slightly deeper into a Seller’s Market than we were last month.

When considering the sales to new listings ratio metric (SNLR), with October at 43.8% this indicates that we are in a “Balanced market”… compared to last month’s Buyer’s market at 39.8%, (just barely, anything under 40.0% is a Buyer’s market). We continue to dance on the border flirting with Balanced and Buyer’s market status.

That’s not at all confusing, how can it be both a Balanced and Seller’s market at the same time? Overall, the months of inventory metric provides a more accurate view of the market than the sales to new listings ratio, especially if not adjusting the SNLR for seasonality. SNLR is also affected by conditions where there is so little inventory that it constrains sales (you can’t sell what you don’t have). The reality is that we continue to camp on the doorstep of a balanced market, which with some additional overall activity would be a good thing for both Buyers and Sellers.

Without looking at any stats, I truly expected October to be down in all respects (avg. sale price, listings, and sales) more so than it actually was. On the ground we often see such a mix right now with “traditionally” priced listings slightly less common (in the 40-50% of daily sales range) compared to the “list low – sell high” strategy. In October, activity “felt” slower than September in my opinion, however the reality of the statistics listed above indicate that month over month, October wasn’t all that different from the month before. On a year over year level however, there was a big increase (nearly 19%) in listings with sales being down slightly (down nearly 5%) from the year before. With sales down and inventory up compared to last year, will this set us up for a decent inventory level over the Holidays and into the beginning of 2024? Time will tell.

With the BoC choosing to “hold” at their Oct 25th rate announcement, this seems to have boosted a bit of confidence with both Buyers and Sellers in my opinion. Although it’s a bit early to say for sure at the time of this writing, the activity levels seem to have increased noticeably after the rate announcement. Also, with inflation down slightly to 3.8% in September (from 4% the previous month), hopefully we can continue on this trend and perhaps see interest rates begin to decrease in 2024. Economists are divided on when this may begin to happen in 2024 but I think we’re all hoping to see something positive by the end of Q2.

If you are waiting on rates to drop before making a move however, you may find yourself in the middle of a much more active market as many Buyers have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for rates to come down and according to many experts may move quickly back into the market when rates drop perhaps straining inventory levels resulting in a supply and demand fueled increase in price. Rental vacancy continues to be historically low in Windsor/Essex with rents continuing to increase. If you’re currently renting, consider all of your costs when deciding whether to get into the market now or wait on rates to change first.

Builders continue to complete infrastructure for new projects and some builders have good deals on homes that Buyer’s could not close on due to Buyer qualification changes on closing etc. Some projects are ready to go including one of our Builder’s (Lakeland Homes) newest development – Phase 3 of Oakwood Trails semis and townhomes. Located near St. Anne’s High School in Lakeshore. The grand opening for this development will be on Thursday November 16th from 3-7pm. We’ll have Hors d’oeuvres and door prizes so stop by 392 Matese in Lakeshore. Visit www.BuildingWindsorEssex.com to find out more info about this development and other developments we have coming up in Windsor/Essex!

Real Estate is very difficult to generalize. While averages are great for painting a picture of the general health of the marketplace, many factors are present that determine market value including location, timing/season, pandemic status, condition of home, neighbourhood etc.

I would be happy to sit down with you for a free, no obligation consultation and discuss your specific, unique situation.