October 2022 Residential Real Estate Market Update for Windsor/Essex County
The statistics are now in from WECAR (The Windsor Essex County Association of REALTORS ®) for October 2022. Much the same as last month, BoC rate hikes continue to impact Canada’s real estate markets including our local Windsor/Essex Market. However, an increasing lack of inventory is shifting supply and demand.
Our new average sale price is $542,707. That’s a 4.26% decrease from this time a year ago and an increase of 3.58% from last month (September 2022 avg price was $523,928). *(The Median sale price for October 2022 was $500,000).
There were 885 new listings in September 2022 compared to 765 new listings in October 2022. This is down 13.56% from last month and is a decrease of 11.76% from the same time last year. There were 403 sales in September 2022 compared with 366 sales in October 2022 which is a decrease of 9.18% from last month and a 48.23% decrease compared to a year ago.
The most popular home styles in October 2022 were:
1st – Bungalow (87 sales) $421,602
2nd – 2 Storey (58 sales) $780,376
3rd – Ranch (51 sales) $589,273
4th – Raised Ranch (38 sales) $607,789
5th – 1.5 Storey (36 sales) $400,748
Wondering what your price category looks like in October 2022? here’s the breakdown:
Sales by Price Category
$0 – $159,900 (5)
$160,000 – $299,999 (40)
$300,000 – $449,999 (115)
$450,000 – $599,999 (106)
$600,000 – $749,999 (66)
$750,000 – $899,999 (30)
$900,000 – $1,199,999 (21)
$1,200,000 – 1,399,999 (4)
$1,400,000 + (3)
If you’re wondering what the October 2022 listings/sales look like where you live in Essex County, here’s the breakdown:
Listings vs Sales by Area
00 – Windsor, LaSalle, Tecumseh – (List 466 – Sold 240)
10 – Amherstburg – (List 70 – Sold 26)
20 – Colchester / Harrow – (List 16 – Sold 5)
30 – Kingsville- (List 29 – Sold 12)
40 – Leamington – (List 32 – Sold 15)
50 – Wheatley – (List 4 – Sold 3)
60 – Lakeshore West – (List 47 – Sold 28)
70 – Essex – (List 37 – Sold 13)
80 – Lakeshore East – (List 19- Sold 8)
90 – Tilbury – (List 15 – Sold 10)
In case you’re wondering, here’s what the average price has looked like for the month of October since 2016:
2022 – $542,707
2021 – $565,278
2020 – $428,726
2019 – $342,543
2018 – $305,552
2017 – $254,916
2016 – $230,754
What does all this mean?
The interest rate hikes from the Bank of Canada continue to affect our local and national real estate markets (but that’s not the only factor at play here). On October 26th the BoC increased the target rate by 50 basis points (which is better than the 75 we were expecting!). Below is a list of the interest rate increases we’ve had so far this year with one more announcement scheduled for this year on December 7, 2022.
October 26, 2022 (Target 3.75%) (+0.50%)
September 7, 2022 (Target 3.25%) (+0.75%)
July 13, 2022 (Target 2.50%) (+1.00%)
June 1, 2022 (Target 1.50%) (+0.50%)
April 13, 2022 (Target 1.00%) (+0.50%)
March 2, 2022 (Target 0.50%) (+0.25%)
January 26, 2022 (Target 0.25%) (no change)
As mortgage rates increase, generally so does the stress test qualification rate which is generally shifting buyers into a lower price bracket as their affordability is reduced. Unfortunately, we’ve watched as the BoC rate hikes have had a very slow impact on inflation. Below is a list of the inflation rates from this year to date with the most recent being 6.9%:
September 2022 (6.9%)
August 2022 (7.0%)
July 2022 (7.6%)
June 2022 (8.1%)
May 2022 (7.7%)
April 2022 (6.8%)
March 2022 (6.7%)
February 2022 (5.7%)
January 2022 (5.1%)
We’ve watched as our local average price has declined over the past months but what we’re experiencing right now is a larger decline in inventory which is beginning to, in many cases, create more demand for the fewer properties on the market. On the ground we feel multiple offers are up slightly, especially in lower price ranges (we’re even seeing bully offers again here and there) and some homes that have been sitting on the market for months are now sold. Typically, in December we often have some very low inventory levels so the question is: if supply is extremely low now, what will December look like? Supply and demand may shift the market slightly making the market more attractive for Sellers than it has been in the past few months.
In October 2022 new listings were down 11.76% compared to last year but they were down 13.56% from last month alone. With only 765 new listings in October, choice in some segments is quite limited. Sales were down 48.23% in October 2022 from last year but down 9.18% compared to last month. Decreasing supply has had some effect on sales as well. You can’t sell what you don’t have. In addition to other factors such as immigration and first-time buyers that have waited to get into the market as well as those trying to use up pre-approvals/low rate holds before they expire, we may see average price continue to increase slightly. We’re currently sitting at 3.1 Months of Inventory which still indicates a Seller’s market from an inventory perspective while our Sales to New Listing Ratio is at 50.1% indicating a balanced market.
Generally, as of late we’ve been seeing an increase in listing strategies whereby homes are sold at or below asking price (meaning no delayed offers looking for multiples) which is happening on average more than 50% of the time, so in general the strategy is still shifting but is also highly dependent on price point, type, and location of housing. Which strategy is best utilized depends on these factors and up to date market tracking and information, so having a REALTOR who understands the market will be able to recommend the best strategy for your particular property.
Is it still a good time to sell?
As supply shrinks, it becomes a more appealing environment for Sellers. Sales are down, yes, however while Buyer interest has been lower than earlier in the year, currently the lack of inventory is translating to less sales strictly due to supply and demand. No houses = no sales. With the Christmas season approaching quickly and likelihood of traditional, seasonal low inventory coming into play, the lack of inventory may become more serious causing more cases of Buyers competing for homes. If you’re thinking of Selling, now would be a good time to get the ball rolling to position yourself well for the next two months.
So, is it a good time to buy?
Sellers appear to slowly be coming to terms with the fact that we are no longer in the Q1 real estate market and no longer expect those kinds of results. This is often translating into the ability to include conditions such as financing, home inspection and even sale of Buyer’s property. Yes, there is a low inventory situation so if you’re searching in the under average price ranges, especially the very low end, you’ll likely still encounter multiple offer situations. Above average price ranges often reveal a more comfortable offer/negotiation situation that feels more balanced.
What about new homes?
New construction inquiries are still on the rise according to our builders. There are a number of exciting projects across the county in the works in many stages of approval and servicing. Choose a REALTOR who knows the new construction segment well and can get you the info you need before pre-sales begin.
Does all this information apply to everyone?
Real Estate is very difficult to generalize. While averages are great for painting a picture of the general health of the marketplace, many factors are present that determine market value including location, timing/season, pandemic status, condition of home, neighbourhood etc. I would be happy to sit down with you for a free, no obligation consultation and discuss your specific, unique situation.
Call me at 226-347-6945 or email: steve@steveblais.com
Steve Blais, Sales Representative and Team Manager
Team Angie Goulet and Associates, RE/MAX Preferred Realty Ltd. – Brokerage
*Median Sales Price is when you take all of the sale prices listed in numerical order and pick the price in the exact middle of the list, if there is an even number of sales, it is the average of the two middle prices.
