The statistics are now in from WECAR (The Windsor Essex County Association of REALTORS ®) for November 2022. Much the same as last month, the BoC rate hikes continue to impact Canada’s real estate markets including our local Windsor/Essex Market. An increasing lack of inventory is creating more multiple offer situations, especially in the lower price points and with properties that are in good condition, however, less homes available does translate into less sales and Buyers being pushed into lower qualification approvals means they are buying lower priced homes affecting our average sale price.
Our new average sale price for November 2022 is $511,275. That’s a -9.94% decrease from this time a year ago and a decrease of 5.79% from last month (October 2022 avg price was $542,707). *(The Median sale price for November 2022 was $480,000).
There were 765 new listings in October 2022 compared to 726 new listings in November 2022. This is down 5.1% from last month and is a decrease of 17.50% from the same time last year. There were 366 sales in September 2022 compared with 331 sales in October 2022 which is a decrease of 9.56% from last month and a 50.96% decrease compared to a year ago.
The most popular home styles in November 2022 were:
1st – Bungalow (80) avg price $442,440
2nd – 2 Storey (52) avg price $570,562
3rd – Ranch (51) avg price $613,404
4th – 1.5 Storey (37) avg price $417,892
5th – Raised Ranch (33) avg price $625,779
Wondering what your price category looks like in November 2022? here’s the breakdown:
Sales by Price Category
$0 – $159,900 (4)
$160,000 – $299,999 (55)
$300,000 – $449,999 (100)
$450,000 – $599,999 (104)
$600,000 – $749,999 (68)
$750,000 – $899,999 (15)
$900,000 – $1,199,999 (11)
$1,200,000 – 1,399,999 (5)
$1,400,000 + (1)
If you’re wondering what the November 2022 listings/sales look like where you live in Essex County, here’s the breakdown:
Listings vs Sales by Area
00 – Windsor, LaSalle, Tecumseh – (List 424 – Sold 209)
10 – Amherstburg – (List 63 – Sold 24)
20 – Colchester / Harrow – (List 18 – Sold 7)
30 – Kingsville- (List 28 – Sold 11)
40 – Leamington – (List 38 – Sold 14)
50 – Wheatley – (List 6 – Sold 3)
60 – Lakeshore West – (List 52 – Sold 17)
70 – Essex – (List 24 – Sold 16)
80 – Lakeshore East – (List 23 – Sold 10)
90 – Tilbury – (List 21 – Sold 12)
In case you’re wondering, here’s what the average price has looked like for the month of November since 2016:
2022 – $542,707
2021 – $570,879
2020 – $420,007
2019 – $ 340,366
2018 – $288,311
2017 – $261,157
2016 – $233,492
What does all this mean?
It’s amazing how different the statistics look compared to what we as agents are seeing on the ground. Especially in the lower price ranges we are experiencing an uptick in competing multiple offers with decreasing inventory for Buyer’s to choose from. The percentage of daily sales that are sold at or below asking price is also dropping again. A few weeks ago, we were in the 70-80% range daily and over the past couple of weeks we’ve been working down into the 60-69% range. Confirming that the listing strategy of list low/sell high with multiple offers is increasingly being used (especially in the lower price range).
The December 7th rate announcement by the BoC is a popular subject for discussion and the general expectation is a 25-50bp increase will be necessary as the inflation rate remained unchanged at 6.9% for the past two months (with a BoC target of 2-3%).
2022 BoC Rate Announcements
December 7, 2022 (yet to be announced)
October 26, 2022 (Target 3.75%) (+0.50%)
September 7, 2022 (Target 3.25%) (+0.75%)
July 13, 2022 (Target 2.50%) (+1.00%)
June 1, 2022 (Target 1.50%) (+0.50%)
April 13, 2022 (Target 1.00%) (+0.50%)
March 2, 2022 (Target 0.50%) (+0.25%)
January 26, 2022 (Target 0.25%) (no change)
As mortgage rates increase, generally so does the stress test qualification rate which is generally shifting buyers into a lower price bracket as their affordability is reduced.
2022 Inflation Numbers
October 2022 (6.9%)
September 2022 (6.9%)
August 2022 (7.0%)
July 2022 (7.6%)
June 2022 (8.1%)
May 2022 (7.7%)
April 2022 (6.8%)
March 2022 (6.7%)
February 2022 (5.7%)
January 2022 (5.1%)
We are again this month sitting at 3.1 months of inventory. Based on months of inventory we are currently in a Seller’s Market. Our Sales to New Listings ration is currently at 48.7% which would indicate a Balanced Market. Once again, it’s fair to say that we are in a transitional market. We expect to see a more balanced market in 2023.
The Forecast?
Our Team was fortunate to attend a Toronto area Real Estate Conference last month and had the pleasure of hearing Benjamin Tal (Deputy Chief Economist for CIBC) speak. He was very optimistic about 2023, especially the second half of the year. The keyword is definitely inflation. With only the choice of inflation or recession, the BoC will choose a recession every time, said Mr. Tal.
Also, RE/MAX has just released its 2023 Canadian Housing Market Outlook and I have to say, I’m pleased with the forecast for our local Windsor/Essex market! RE/MAX Canada expects the Windsor area to be in a balanced market in 2023 with an estimated average price of $649,278.01. The expectation for the first half of 2023 is a plateau of prices with both sales declining slightly and then climbing slightly starting in the third quarter ultimately increasing both average price and sales by approximately 3% compared to 2022. This is great news, as for many other markets they are forecasting significant declines such as Barrie, ON at a 15% decline in pricing and 10% decline in sales. Other areas expected to decline significantly are Kelowna, BC, Nanaimo, BC, GTA, Durham, ON, Collingwood area etc.
According to the research done by RE/MAX, consumer confidence is high across Canada with 73% of Canadians believing that real estate is the best long-term investment they can make which is up from 49% in 2021. Just ask someone who had some FTX crypto investments.
You can read the Windsor 2023 forecast here: https://blog.remax.ca/windsor-housing-market-outlook/
Is it still a good time to sell?
The holidays generally mean lower inventory levels. With less choice available, Buyers are finding themselves more and more competing for desirable properties. This can be advantageous for Sellers. With an apprx. 3% increase expected over the entirety of 2023 (but mostly in the second half of the year, with +/- room for adjustment), we’re really looking at a pretty stable market, so waiting for the market to climb back to Jan/Feb/March 2022 market peaks is really not going to happen. Take advantage of lower inventory levels during the Holidays! Pricing strategy is EXTREMELY important now more than ever! You need an agent who has the market knowledge to help you make the right choice for your unique circumstances.
So, is it a good time to buy?
Although lower supply is creating some multiple offer situations, we’re still seeing many offers coming in with conditions (mainly financing and home inspection). With prices expected to increase by mid-2023 and beyond, and a more linear price point expected over Q1/Q2, waiting for the bottom of the real estate market may no longer be a thing. We may very well be there now. Also, take advantage of more and more offers being accepted with conditions.
What about new homes?
New construction inquiries are still on the rise according to our builders. There are a number of exciting projects across the county in the works in many stages of approval and servicing. Choose a REALTOR who knows the new construction segment well and can get you the info you need before pre-sales begin. Builders are anxious to move forward with their projects and the passing of the new Bill 23 (The More Homes Built Faster Act) is intended to speed the development process, reducing red tape and getting shovels in ground quicker.
You can learn more about Bill 23 here: https://news.ontario.ca/en/backgrounder/1002525/more-homes-built-faster-act-2022
Does all this information apply to everyone?
Real Estate is very difficult to generalize. While averages are great for painting a picture of the general health of the marketplace, many factors are present that determine market value including location, timing/season, pandemic status, condition of home, neighbourhood etc. I would be happy to sit down with you for a free, no obligation consultation and discuss your specific, unique situation.
Call me at 226-347-6945 or email: steve@steveblais.com
Steve Blais, Sales Representative
RE/MAX Preferred Realty Ltd. – Brokerage
Team General Manager, Angie Goulet and Associates
*Median Sales Price is when you take all of the sale prices listed in numerical order and pick the price in the exact middle of the list, if there is an even number of sales, it is the average of the two middle prices.
