The statistics are now in from WECAR (The Windsor Essex County Association of REALTORS ®) for July 2023. Interest rates, affordability and summer seasonality highlight our July numbers, let’s dive in!
The new average sale price for July 2023 was $554,277. That’s a -0.96% decrease from this time a year ago and a decrease of -4.80% from the previous month (June 2023 average price was $582,245). *(The Median sale price for July 2023 was $510,111 which is a +2.02% increase y/y).
There were 1,049 new listings in July 2023 compared to 1,141 new listings in June 2023. This was a decrease of -20.35% from the same time last year and a decrease of 8.06% from the previous month.
There were 438 sales in July 2023 compared with 525 sales in June 2023 which was a +1.39% increase compared to a year ago and a decrease of -16.57% from the previous month.
MOST POPULAR HOME STYLES (July 2023)
1st – Bungalow (112) avg price $470,467
2nd – 2 Storey (64) avg price $694,673
3rd – Ranch (61) avg price $605,414
4th – 1.5 Storey (56) avg price $447,207
5th – Raised Ranch (42) avg price $642,222
Wondering what sales activity in your price category looked like in July 2023? here’s the breakdown:
SALES BY PRICE CATEGORY (July 2023)
$0 – $159,900 (3)
$160,000 – $299,999 (37)
$300,000 – $449,999 (156)
$450,000 – $599,999 (129)
$600,000 – $749,999 (91)
$750,000 – $899,999 (32)
$900,000 – $1,199,999 (29)
$1,200,000 – 1,399,999 (4)
$1,400,000 + (3)
If you’re wondering what the July 2023 listings/sales looked like where you live in Essex County, here’s the breakdown:
Listings vs Sales by Area (July 2023)
00 – Windsor, LaSalle, Tecumseh – (List 655 – Sold 292)
10 – Amherstburg – (List 73 – Sold 29)
20 – Colchester / Harrow – (List 36 – Sold 14)
30 – Kingsville- (List 47 – Sold 24)
40 – Leamington – (List 39 – Sold 19)
50 – Wheatley – (List 7 – Sold 4)
60 – Lakeshore West – (List 62 – Sold 24)
70 – Essex – (List 47 – Sold 14)
80 – Lakeshore East – (List 23 – Sold 9)
90 – Tilbury – (List 16 – Sold 5)
Here’s what the average price has looked like for the month of July historically:
2023 – $554,277
2022 – $557,989
2021 – $542,334
2020 – $427,107
2019 – $342,418
2018 – $311,931
2017 – $254,167
2016 – $233,948
Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcements
2023
July 12, 2023 (Target 5.00%) (+0.25%)
June 7, 2023 (Target 4.75%) (+0.25%)
April 12, 2023 (Target 4.50%) (no change)
March 8, 2023 (Target 4.50%) (no change)
January 25, 2023 (Target 4.50%) (+0.25%)
2022
December 7, 2022 (Target 4.25%) (+0.50%)
October 26, 2022 (Target 3.75%) (+0.50%)
September 7, 2022 (Target 3.25%) (+0.75%)
July 13, 2022 (Target 2.50%) (+1.00%)
June 1, 2022 (Target 1.50%) (+0.50%)
April 13, 2022 (Target 1.00%) (+0.50%)
March 2, 2022 (Target 0.50%) (+0.25%)
January 26, 2022 (Target 0.25%) (no change)
Canadian Inflation (Target 2%)
2023
June 2023 (2.8%)
May 2023 (3.4%)
April 2023 (4.4%)
March 2023 (4.3%)
February 2023 (5.2%)
January 2023 (5.9%)
2022
December 2022 (6.3%)
November 2022 (6.8%)
October 2022 (6.9%)
September 2022 (6.9%)
August 2022 (7.0%)
July 2022 (7.6%)
June 2022 (8.1%)
May 2022 (7.7%)
April 2022 (6.8%)
March 2022 (6.7%)
February 2022 (5.7%)
January 2022 (5.1%)
Is it a Buyer’s or Seller’s Market?
Depending on the metrics used, we are looking at a Seller’s and Balanced Market. We are still in a low inventory state in Windsor/Essex. With an over 20% decrease in new listings compared to a year ago, and even 8% lower than May, we continue to experience many bidding wars, especially on average to lower price point homes. At 2.9 months of inventory, we are lower than this time last year which was 3.8 months of inventory. Either way using the Month’s of Inventory metric we are still in a “Seller’s Market”.
When considering the Sales to New Listings Ratio metric we sit at 45.9% for July 2023 compared with 32.1% this time last year and 48.8% last month (May 2023). Using this metric, we are currently in a “Balanced Market” however we are approaching the point (when we reach below 40%) where this metric points towards a Buyer’s Market unless sales increase. The problem is you can’t sell what you don’t have. Unless we can get new listings, sales will have a hard time climbing!
As is typical for July/August, activity does slow, and the July listing and sale numbers certainly reflect that. However, another non-seasonal factor (the elephant in the room) is affordability and interest rates. As you may have heard, the Bank of Canada has again raised interest rates in July by 25 basis points and with a target rate now at 5% this greatly affects “stress test” qualifying rates and buying power. As rates go up, Canadians generally qualify for less house, therefore with rate increases over the past two months, it’s not surprising to see our average price shift lower as more Buyers are forced into lower price points for their search. In addition to mortgage costs, the increase in BoC rate also affects other debt such as credit cards etc. squeezing Buyers even further when trying to save for that downpayment.
Is it a good time to sell?
With inventory very low, this may be a good time to capitalize on the lack of competition. There are still Buyers out there and depending on your area/price point, they are still competing. According to many economists it’s unlikely that we will see a decrease in interest rates anytime soon, so Buyers may further experience some belt tightening in the coming months. With only 12 days on market in July, homes are typically still selling quickly – however it’s extremely important that the right listing offer strategy and pricing be used for your unique situation as listings can become stale quickly.
Is it a good time to buy?
As mentioned above, interest rates have been increased over the past two months, Buyers may be wise to take advantage of any remaining lower pre-approval rate holds available to them and before any potential further rate increases push the stress test qualification rate up further.
Those holding out waiting for interest rates to drop are likely going to be waiting for some time and the benefit of which would likely be offset by higher home prices. If you find something you like and qualify for now, it may be smart to make the move, especially for first-time Buyers as rental rates continue to climb. Don’t wait to buy real estate. Buy real estate and wait..
What about new homes?
There are a number of exciting new construction projects underway in Windsor/Essex and many builders are adjusting prices to suit current market conditions and building costs. Some excellent pricing can now be found on new homes in many areas. One of our builders, Lakeland Homes, has just launched new developments in several communities and have inventory available in areas including Amherstburg, Windsor, Cottam, Essex and Lakeshore! Whether you’re after a single-family home or a townhome we have something for everyone. In a resale market plagued with low inventory and often bidding wars, choosing a new home may be the right fit for you! Contact us for more information about our new developments!
Does all of this information apply to everyone?
Real Estate is very difficult to generalize. While averages are great for painting a picture of the general health of the marketplace, many factors are present that determine market value including location, timing/season, pandemic status, condition of home, neighbourhood etc. I would be happy to sit down with you for a free, no obligation consultation and discuss your specific, unique situation.
Call me at 226-347-6945 or email: steveblais.com
Steve Blais
Team General Manager, Angie Goulet and Associates,
Sales Representative, RE/MAX Preferred Realty Ltd. – Brokerage
*Median Sales Price is when you take all of the sale prices listed in numerical order and pick the price in the exact middle of the list, if there is an even number of sales, it is the average of the two middle prices.
