The statistics are now in from WECAR (The Windsor Essex County Association of REALTORS ®) for July 2022. The continued increases in lending rates by the BoC is clearly having an impact on our local real estate market! Our new average sale price is $557,989! That’s a 2.10% increase from this time a year ago but a decrease of 8.18% from last month (June 2022 avg price was $607,704!). *(The Median sale price for July 2022 was $500,000).
There were 1,557 new listings in June 2022 compared to 1,305 new listings in July 2022. This is down from last month and is an increase of 23.81% from the same time last year. There were 545 sales in June 2022 compared with 393 sales in July 2022 which is down from last month and also down a whopping 40.99% from this time last year.
The most popular home styles in July 2022 were:
1st – Bungalow (93 sales) $454,563
2nd – 2 Storey (62 sales) $737,979
3rd – 1.5 Storey (57 sales) $429,796
4th – Ranch (53 sales) $644,259
5th – Raised Ranch (37 sales) $625,882
Currently we are sitting at a 3.6 months’ supply of inventory (a balanced market would be 4-6 months of inventory). Last month we were at 2.2 months of inventory. So, while inventory is growing quickly, it still indicates a Seller’s market? Yes. stick with me, more to come on that.
Wondering what your price category looks like in July 2022? here’s the breakdown:
Sales by Price Category
$0 – $159,900 (2)
$160,000 – $299,999 (33)
$300,000 – $449,999 (139)
$450,000 – $599,999 (115)
$600,000 – $749,999 (70)
$750,000 – $899,999 (39)
$900,000 – $1,199,999 (17)
$1,200,000 – 1,399,999 (3)
$1,400,000 + (9)
If you’re wondering what the July 2022 listings/sales look like where you live in Essex County, here’s the breakdown:
Listings vs Sales by Area
00 – Windsor, LaSalle, Tecumseh – (List 783 – Sold 254)
10 – Amherstburg – (List 97 – Sold 22)
20 – Colchester / Harrow – (List 36 – Sold 5)
30 – Kingsville- (List 68 – Sold 14)
40 – Leamington – (List 68 – Sold 24)
50 – Wheatley – (List 12 – Sold 7)
60 – Lakeshore West – (List 74 – Sold 22)
70 – Essex – (List 54 – Sold 13)
80 – Lakeshore East – (List 36- Sold 12)
90 – Tilbury – (List 36 – Sold 11)
In case you’re wondering, here’s what the average price has looked like for the month of July since 2016:
2022 – $557,989
2021 – $542,344
2020 – $427,107
2019 – $335,116
2018 – $311,931
2017 – $255,688
2016 – $233,948
What does all this mean?
As the feds continue to fight inflation by raising interest rates (there have been three interest rate hikes so far this year with the last in July being a full 100 basis points!) Buyer demand has been decreasing while listing inventory continues to increase. The average price for July 2022 is $49,715 lower than last month’s average price, however the average price for July 2022 is up 2.10% compared to this time last year which while a much more modest increase than last month, is still on the positive side!
With 3.6 months’ worth of inventory, we’re still in a Seller’s market from an inventory perspective although it feels as though we skipped right over a balanced market and into a Buyer’s market. The last time our July months of inventory indicated anything but a Seller’s market was July 2012 at 5.5 months of inventory which then indicated a Balanced Market. So, is it currently a Buyer’s, Balanced or Seller’s market you ask? Well that depends on the metrics you’re using to make that determination. According to months of inventory that would still be a Seller’s market but using the sales to new listings ratio we’re looking at a Buyer’s market. Wait, what? The sales to new listings ratio for July 2022 is 32.4%. Anything under 40% indicates a Buyer’s market. Sooooo, let’s call this a transitional market but I suspect very shortly we will reach the min. 4 months of inventory to move into a balanced market based on that metric. Typical seasonality is also affecting supply and demand as July/August are typically slower months in the real estate industry. I’m anxious to see what our fall market brings!
The expectation is for interest rates to continue rising so buying power for the average Buyer will continue to be reduced further in the coming months. There are three more rate policy review announcement dates for the Bank of Canada in 2022, (September 7, October 26 and December 7th) and it’s likely that we will continue to see rates climb. Are the rising interest rates doing enough to curb inflation? June 2022 saw an inflation rate of 8.1%. The July 2022 inflation rate announcement is scheduled for August 16th so we’ll be keeping an eye on that!
We’re still experiencing a mix of listing strategies from listing below market value in order to attempt to obtain multiple offers and above asking sale prices (with delayed offer dates) as well as listing at/near market value and negotiating a sale price with individual offers (and no delayed offer dates). We’re also seeing way more conditional offers being accepted including sale of buyer’s property conditions! Which strategy do you choose to get the most money for your home? Choosing the right REALTOR who has their finger on the pulse of what’s happening TODAY is so important! This market is changing on a daily and weekly basis. Waiting for monthly statistics to arrive leaves you unaware of current trends in the marketplace.
Is it still a good time to sell?
Same answer as last month. With rates and inventory expected to rise further, while sales are decreasing – if you’re thinking of selling, now is a good time to hit the market before rates and inventory numbers climb even further. With increasing interest rates and higher stress test qualification, Buyers naturally will afford less home for their money.
So, is it a good time to buy?
For most people yes, why? Same basic answer as last month. Inventory levels continue to climb offering Buyers more choice and, in many cases, much less competition for homes (if any!). Should you wait longer to buy? Maybe prices will decline even further? We are expecting additional mortgage rate hikes so the cost of waiting may offset any benefit from higher inventory levels and decreases in pricing not to mention potential qualification challenges. It is impossible to time the market to buy at the absolute lowest point. If it’s been some time since you received a pre-approval for home shopping, PLEASE check with your mortgage professional as your qualification level has likely changed due to stress test requirements etc.
What about new homes?
There are new developments on the horizon! Previously there was quite a shortage of new homes available and especially buildable land. Now it looks like the new home pace will be moderated somewhat with prices becoming more attractive to Buyers. Now is a good time to consider a new build if you can find the availability in the location you want to be in! Choose a REALTOR who knows the new construction segment well as much of the availability isn’t on Realtor.ca.
Does all this information apply to everyone?
Real Estate is very difficult to generalize. While averages are great for painting a picture of the general health of the marketplace, many factors are present that determine market value including location, timing/season, pandemic status, condition of home, neighbourhood etc. I would be happy to sit down with you for a free, no obligation consultation and discuss your specific, unique situation.
Call me at 226-347-6945 or email: steve@steveblais.com
Steve Blais
Sales rep/Team General Manager
Angie Goulet and Associates,
RE/MAX Preferred Realty Ltd. – Brokerage
Enjoy this fantastic Summer weather!
*Median Sales Price is when you take all of the sale prices listed in numerical order and pick the price in the exact middle of the list, if there is an even number of sales, it is the average of the two middle prices.
