**January 2023 Residential Real Estate Market Update for Windsor/Essex County**
The statistics are now in from WECAR (The Windsor Essex County Association of REALTORS ®) for January 2023. Are we turning a corner on the correction? Let’s break it down!
On a monthly level, the new average sale price for January 2023 was $516,117. That’s a -19.95% decrease from this time a year ago and an increase of 8.97% from the previous month (December 2022 avg price was $473,642). *(The Median sale price for January 2023 was $474,500).
There were 598 new listings in January 2023 compared to 383 new listings in December 2022. This was an increase of 8.93% from the same time last year and up a whopping 56.14% from the previous month.
There were 244 sales in January 2023 compared with 230 sales in December 2022 which was a 46.72% decrease compared to a year ago and up 6.09% from the previous month.
The most popular home styles in January 2022 were:
1st – Bungalow (59) avg price $425,040
2nd – Ranch (35) avg price $630,326
3rd – 2 Storey (32) avg price $526,247
4th – 1.5 Storey (25) avg price $465,630
5th – Raised Ranch (25) avg price $592,699
Wondering what sales activity in your price category looked like in January 2023? here’s the breakdown:
Sales by Price Category
$0 – $159,900 (0)
$160,000 – $299,999 (34)
$300,000 – $449,999 (96)
$450,000 – $599,999 (72)
$600,000 – $749,999 (41)
$750,000 – $899,999 (15)
$900,000 – $1,199,999 (9)
$1,200,000 – 1,399,999 (1)
$1,400,000 + (3)
If you’re wondering what the January 2023 listings/sales looked like where you live in Essex County, here’s the breakdown:
Listings vs Sales by Area
00 – Windsor, LaSalle, Tecumseh – (List 326 – Sold 152)
10 – Amherstburg – (List 66 – Sold 19)
20 – Colchester / Harrow – (List 8 – Sold 5)
30 – Kingsville- (List 20 – Sold 6)
40 – Leamington – (List 37 – Sold 17)
50 – Wheatley – (List 5 – Sold 2)
60 – Lakeshore West – (List 32 – Sold 11)
70 – Essex – (List 23 – Sold 6)
80 – Lakeshore East – (List 18 – Sold 3)
90 – Tilbury – (List 17 – Sold 12)
Here’s what the average price has looked like for the month of January historically:
2023 – $516,117
2022 – $636,422
2021 – $510,716
2020 – $379,813
2019 – $306,005
2018 – $277,827
2017 – $219,083
2016 – $205,967
Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcements
2023
January 25, 2023 (Target 4.50%) (+0.25%)
2022
December 7, 2022 (Target 4.25%) (+0.50%)
October 26, 2022 (Target 3.75%) (+0.50%)
Sept 7, 2022 (Target 3.25%) (+0.75%)
July 13, 2022 (Target 2.50%) (+1.00%)
June 1, 2022 (Target 1.50%) (+0.50%)
April 13, 2022 (Target 1.00%) (+0.50%)
March 2, 2022 (Target 0.50%) (+0.25%)
January 26, 2022 (Target 0.25%) (no change)
As variable mortgage rates increase, generally so does the stress test qualification rate which is generally shifting buyers into a lower price bracket as rates go up and their affordability is reduced. We’re thrilled that the BoC indicated they are pushing the “pause button” on interest rate increases for the time being. As inflation begins to slowly creep downward, it will take some time for this lagging indicator to reflect the BoC’s efforts. Is it enough? We’ll have to wait and see! Fixed mortgage rates are not tied to the BoC rate increases rather by bond yields and currently we’re seeing many fixed mortgage rates coming down! Currently there are 5-year fixed products available for under 4.99%. However, with the anticipation that variable rates may come down by the end of 2024, perhaps a shorter term fixed may be the temporary alternative (2 or 3 year fixed rate mortgage). Consult with your favourite mortgage broker to find out what’s best for your unique situation. In any event, if you’ve been pre-qualified for financing, please double check with your mortgage professional that your qualification has not changed!
Canadian Inflation
2023
January 2023 (to be announced Feb 21, 2023)
2022
December 2022 (6.3%)
November 2022 (6.8%)
October 2022 (6.9%)
September 2022 (6.9%)
August 2022 (7.0%)
July 2022 (7.6%)
June 2022 (8.1%)
May 2022 (7.7%)
April 2022 (6.8%)
March 2022 (6.7%)
February 2022 (5.7%)
January 2022 (5.1%)
With the BoC Target inflation rate at 2-3%, we are still far from that at 6.3% and our road to getting there has been extremely slow despite the significant interest rate increases we’ve experienced in 2022. We’re hoping the BoC’s pause on increases for the time being will help both Buyers and Seller’s in the coming months.
Is it a Buyer’s or Seller’s Market?
Although beginning to increase, we are still experiencing very low inventory levels with January 2023 sitting at 3.1 months of inventory and the Sales to New Listings ratio now dropped to 44.9%. The months of inventory metric indicates that we are still in a Seller’s Market based on our still low inventory levels. However, the Sales to New Listing Ratio indicates that we are in a Balanced Market given the lower sales numbers when compared to those listings. With that said, and in alignment with forecasts made by economists and Real Estate companies, we expect to fully transition to a balanced market by approximately the middle of 2023. Overall, this would be a healthy market for both Sellers and Buyers!
The Forecast?
As mentioned above, RE/MAX Canada along with other Canadian real estate companies and economists paint an optimistic picture for Windsor/Essex in 2023, especially compared to other Canadian cities such as Toronto, Vancouver, Barrie etc. The forecast is for the Windsor area to be in a balanced market for most of 2023. The expectation for the first half of 2023 is a potential for a short, continued decline in sales/price before plateauing and then climbing slightly starting in the third quarter ultimately increasing both average price and sales by approximately 3% compared to 2022. We have so many wonderful new projects in Windsor/Essex including the new Gordie Howe International Bridge, the EV Battery plant, the Mega Hospital and more! This will bring a large number of jobs to the region as well as all of the spin-off jobs that support these and other projects.
You can read the RE/MAX Canada Windsor 2023 forecast here: https://blog.remax.ca/windsor-housing-market-outlook/
Is it a good time to sell?
Especially over the past week, on the ground we’ve noticed listings increasing as well as overall activity. Sales are still currently lower but we’re still seeing a continued mix of pricing strategy being utilized (list low/sell high or list near market value). Pricing strategy is EXTREMELY important now more than ever! You need an agent who has the market knowledge to help you make the right choice for your unique circumstances. With inventory still low, now could very well be the best time of year to sell before the spring market!
Is it a good time to buy?
We’re happy to see the BoC claim a “pause” on raising interest rates further. For those waiting for things to top out, we’re here. With Buyers getting back into the market and Sellers also beginning to list more, as we go forward, we should begin to see more inventory and choice for Buyers. Waiting for rates to come back down first? That may be awhile as this is not forecasted to take place until late 2024. With prices forecasted to increase into Q3 and Q4, now may be the best time to get into the market. A balanced market will be an ideal environment for both Buyers and Sellers.
Typical REALTOR response. It’s good for both. Sure it is.
It really can be depending on your personal situation. As we move into a more balanced market conditions will be even more favourable for both Buyers and Sellers. Remember, the best deals are a win-win for everyone involved.
What about new homes?
Many developers have been cautious with bringing their new developments to market in a correcting environment. We’re already hearing the optimism from the developers and builders we work with regarding market conditions and timing to begin bringing new units to market. There are several exciting projects across the county in the works in many stages of approval and servicing. Choose a REALTOR who knows the new construction segment well and can get you the info you need before pre-sales begin.
Does all this information apply to everyone?
Real Estate is very difficult to generalize. While averages are great for painting a picture of the general health of the marketplace, many factors are present that determine market value including location, timing/season, pandemic status, condition of home, neighbourhood etc. I would be happy to sit down with you for a free, no obligation consultation and discuss your specific, unique situation.
Call me direct at 226-347-6945 or email: steve@steveblais.com
Steve Blais, Sales representative
Angie Goulet and Associates, RE/MAX Preferred Realty Ltd. – Brokerage
*Median Sales Price is when you take all of the sale prices listed in numerical order and pick the price in the exact middle of the list, if there is an even number of sales, it is the average of the two middle prices.
