The statistics are now in from WECAR (The Windsor Essex County Association of REALTORS ®) for December 2023. Happy New Year! I’m sure everyone is eager to move on from the December housing market! Looking forward to a new and improved 2024, what can we expect? Let’s take a look.
The new average sale price for December 2023 was $514,495. That’s a +8.06% increase from this time a year ago and a decrease of -2.77% from the previous month (November 2023 average price was $529,143). *(The Median sale price for December 2023 was $454,806 which is a +1.07% increase y/y).
There were 301 new listings in December 2023 compared to 801 new listings in November 2023. This was a significant decrease of -22.02% from the same time last year and a whopping decrease of -62.42% from the previous month.
There were 226 sales in December 2023 compared with 319 sales in November 2023 which was a -11.37% decrease compared to a year ago and a decrease of -29.15% from the previous month.
Here’s what the average price has looked like for the month of December historically:
2023 – $514,495
2022 – $473,642
2021 – $575,069
2020 – $453,479
2019 – $333,564
2018 – $297,915
2017 – $300,314
2016 – $220,053
MOST POPULAR HOME STYLES (December 2023)
1st – Bungalow (56) avg price $450,340
2nd – 2 Storey (38) avg price $605,632
3rd – 1.5 Storey (27) avg price $400,298
4th –Ranch (27) avg price $605,663
5th – Raised Ranch (14) avg price $589,444
Wondering what sales activity in your price category looked like in December 2023? here’s the breakdown:
SALES BY PRICE CATEGORY
$0 – $159,900 (4)
$160,000 – $299,999 (33)
$300,000 – $449,999 (84)
$450,000 – $599,999 (56)
$600,000 – $749,999 (72)
$750,000 – $899,999 (17)
$900,000 – $1,199,999 (9)
$1,200,000 – 1,399,999 (3)
$1,400,000 + (2)
If you’re wondering what the December 2023 listings/sales looked like where you live in Essex County, here’s the breakdown:
Listings vs Sales by Area (December 2023)
00 – Windsor, LaSalle, Tecumseh – (List 179 – Sold 148)
10 – Amherstburg – (List 14 – Sold 14)
20 – Colchester / Harrow – (List 13 – Sold 5)
30 – Kingsville- (List 13 – Sold 7)
40 – Leamington – (List 20 – Sold 11)
50 – Wheatley – (List 2 – Sold 0)
60 – Lakeshore West – (List 14 – Sold 12)
70 – Essex – (List 17 – Sold 15)
80 – Lakeshore East – (List 7 – Sold 5)
90 – Tilbury – (List 10 – Sold 6)
Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcements
2023
December 6, 2023 (Target 5.00%). (no change)
October 25, 2023 (Target 5.00%). (no change)
September 6, 2023 (Target 5.00%) (no change)
July 12, 2023 (Target 5.00%) (+0.25%)
June 7, 2023 (Target 4.75%) (+0.25%)
April 12, 2023 (Target 4.50%) (no change)
March 8, 2023 (Target 4.50%) (no change)
January 25, 2023 (Target 4.50%) (+0.25%)
Canadian Inflation (Target 2%)
2023
November 2023 (3.1%)
October 2023 (3.1%)
September 2023 (3.8%)
August 2023 (4.0%)
July 2023 (3.3%)
June 2023 (2.8%)
May 2023 (3.4%)
April 2023 (4.4%)
March 2023 (4.3%)
February 2023 (5.2%)
January 2023 (5.9%)
Is it a Buyer’s or Seller’s Market?
Would you believe me if I told you that December 2023 activity puts us in a Seller’s Market?
Using the months of inventory metric, currently we are in a Seller’s Market at 3.6 months of inventory (Balanced market is 4-6 months of inventory). Using the Sales to New Listings Ratio metric we are also in a Seller’s Market at 77.6% (Balanced market is 40-60%).
How can that be? From an agent’s perspective Buyers in December were as elusive as the Loch Ness Monster. The key is listings. As low as the sales numbers were, the new listings decline was much lower. December saw us bring in less than half the new listings we had in the previous month even if you factor in typical seasonality, that’s pretty darn low!
It appears as though perspective Buyers and Sellers are currently wearing BoC glasses. Keeping an eye on “interest rates” with banks and economists forecasting BoC rate decreases sometime after Q1 of 2024. The proverbial light at the end of the tunnel! What’s interesting is that “Fixed rate” mortgages, especially 5-year rates, have already been on the decline. The Bank of Canada’s anticipated rate decreases would affect “variable-rate” mortgages mostly. So, will Buyers sit on the sidelines waiting for variable rate mortgages to come down with BoC announcements but when they finally buy will they choose fixed-rate mortgages that are already on the decline? I guess we’ll have to see where the dust settles.
Keeping an eye on daily listing strategy we’re finding that more and more listings are being sold “traditionally” (at or below asking price). The list-low, sell-high listing strategy has become less popular as the number of sales has decreased considerably, and this strategy requires multiple offers to be effective. Make sure to choose a REALTOR that understands current market conditions and can advise you on the correct listing strategy for your home/price range/location.
To Summarize …..
It’s likely that the media attention with “coming soon” BoC rate cuts will keep Buyer’s on the sidelines for a bit longer and Seller’s hesitant to list until they see Buyers lining up again. This can still be a good time to buy or sell. Buyers can find some good deals out there from motivated Sellers and falling fixed-rate mortgage rates (especially the 5-year rates). Sellers can take advantage of the fact that we have so little inventory at the moment and some people are still motivated to buy.
Waiting for the BoC to lower “rates” in Q2/Q3 may be a double-edged sword as we will likely have a considerable amount of pent-up demand from Buyers who have been watching grass grow waiting for rates to come down. As rates decline, activity will likely increase putting pressure on our low inventory, and likely raising prices. What you save in the interest rate department will likely be offset by higher home prices due to simple supply and demand. Now may very well be a good time to get into the market!
New Construction
There are some exciting new projects underway (like our builder, Lakeland Home’s Phase 3 launch of their popular Oakwood Trails townhome development and a new development in Essex called Woodview Estates) as well as some good deals to be had on remaining inventory in other areas from 2023. Be sure to hire a REALTOR that has a good understanding of new construction and has good relationships with quality local builders.
Does all of this information apply to everyone?
Real Estate is very difficult to generalize. While averages are great for painting a picture of the general health of the marketplace, many factors are present that determine market value including location, timing/season, pandemic status, condition of home, neighbourhood etc.
I would be happy to sit down with you for a free, no obligation consultation and discuss your specific, unique situation.
Call me at 226-347-6945 or email steve@steveblais.com
Steve Blais, REALTOR – RE/MAX Preferred Realty Ltd. – Brokerage
Team General Manager, Angie Goulet & Associates
*Median Sales Price is when you take all of the sale prices listed in numerical order and pick the price in the exact middle of the list, if there is an even number of sales, it is the average of the two middle prices.
