December 2022 Residential Real Estate Market Update for Windsor/Essex County
Happy New Year everyone! The statistics are now in from WECAR (The Windsor Essex County Association of REALTORS ®) for December 2022 and we’re here to break it all down for you.
As far as year over year statistics go, for the year 2022 the average sale price was UP by +11.69% compared to 2021!
On a monthly level, the new average sale price for December 2022 was $473,642. That’s a -17.67% decrease from this time a year ago and a decrease of 7.36% from the previous month (November 2022 avg price was $511,275). *(The Median sale price for December 2022 was $439,650).
There were 383 new listings in December 2022 compared to 726 new listings in November 2022. This was a decrease of 5.9% from the same time last year and down 47.25% from the previous month. There were 230 sales in December 2022 compared with 331 sales in November 2022 which was a 51.88% decrease compared to a year ago and down 30.51% from the previous month.
The most popular home styles in December 2022 were:
1st – Bungalow (62) avg price $375,549
2nd – Ranch (38) avg price $578,698
3rd – 2 Storey (29) avg price $532,421
4th – 1.5 Storey (28) avg price $430,242
5th – Raised Ranch (21) avg price $582,424
Wondering what sales activity in your price category looked like in December 2022? here’s the breakdown:
Sales by Price Category
$0 – $159,900 (7)
$160,000 – $299,999 (43)
$300,000 – $449,999 (91)
$450,000 – $599,999 (64)
$600,000 – $749,999 (33)
$750,000 – $899,999 (9)
$900,000 – $1,199,999 (7)
$1,200,000 – 1,399,999 (1)
$1,400,000 + (1)
If you’re wondering what the December 2022 listings/sales looked like where you live in Essex County, here’s the breakdown:
Listings vs Sales by Area
00 – Windsor, LaSalle, Tecumseh – (List 216 – Sold 154)
10 – Amherstburg – (List 27 – Sold 15)
20 – Colchester / Harrow – (List 8 – Sold 5)
30 – Kingsville- (List 14 – Sold 10)
40 – Leamington – (List 19 – Sold 10)
50 – Wheatley – (List 7 – Sold 3)
60 – Lakeshore West – (List 19 – Sold 10)
70 – Essex – (List 22 – Sold 6)
80 – Lakeshore East – (List 9 – Sold 9)
90 – Tilbury – (List 10 – Sold 7)
Here’s what the average price has looked like for the month of December since 2016:
2022 – $473,642
2021 – $575,069
2020 – $453,479
2019 – $333,564
2018 – $297,915
2017 – $300,314
2016 – $220,053
2022 Bank of Canada Rate Announcements
December 7, 2022 (Target 4.25%) (+0.50%)
October 26, 2022 (Target 3.75%) (+0.50%)
September 7, 2022 (Target 3.25%) (+0.75%)
July 13, 2022 (Target 2.50%) (+1.00%)
June 1, 2022 (Target 1.50%) (+0.50%)
April 13, 2022 (Target 1.00%) (+0.50%)
March 2, 2022 (Target 0.50%) (+0.25%)
January 26, 2022 (Target 0.25%) (no change)
As mortgage rates increase, generally so does the stress test qualification rate which is generally shifting buyers into a lower price bracket as rates go up and their affordability is reduced. With inflation edging down very little over the past year despite the BoC raising rates significantly, many are expecting another interest rate hike in January 2023, perhaps in the 25 to 50 basis point range. If you’ve been pre-qualified for financing, please double check with your mortgage professional that your qualification has not changed!
2022 Canadian Inflation Numbers
November 2022 (6.8%)
October 2022 (6.9%)
September 2022 (6.9%)
August 2022 (7.0%)
July 2022 (7.6%)
June 2022 (8.1%)
May 2022 (7.7%)
April 2022 (6.8%)
March 2022 (6.7%)
February 2022 (5.7%)
January 2022 (5.1%)
With the BoC Target inflation rate at 2-3%, we are far from that at 6.8% and our road to getting there has been extremely slow despite the significant interest rate increases we’ve experienced in 2022.
Is it a Buyer’s or Seller’s Market?
We are still experiencing very low inventory levels with December 2022 sitting at 3.3 months of inventory and the Sales to New Listings ratio at 68.6%. Both key indicators put us into a Seller’s Market for December 2022. The housing correction continues both locally and nationally, however our low inventory levels are certainly softening its effects locally.
The Forecast?
RE/MAX Canada along with other Canadian real estate companies and economists paint an optimistic picture for Windsor/Essex in 2023, especially compared to other Canadian cities such as Toronto, Vancouver, Barrie etc. The forecast is for the Windsor area to be in a balanced market for most of 2023 although we’ll need more inventory for that to happen. The expectation for the first half of 2023 is a short, continued decline in sales/price before plateauing and then climbing slightly starting in the third quarter ultimately increasing both average price and sales by approximately 3% compared to 2022.
You can read the RE/MAX Canada Windsor 2023 forecast here: https://blog.remax.ca/windsor-housing-market-outlook/
Is it still a good time to sell?
The holidays generally mean lower inventory levels and this year that has certainly been the case (and then some). With less choice available, Buyers are sometimes still finding themselves competing for desirable properties. This can be advantageous for Sellers. Many Sellers have the opinion that Spring is the best time to sell, however, this generally means more properties on the market at the same time. Take advantage of our current low inventory levels! Pricing strategy is EXTREMELY important now more than ever! You need an agent who has the market knowledge to help you make the right choice for your unique circumstances.
So, is it a good time to buy?
Although lower supply is creating some multiple offer situations, we’re still seeing many offers coming in with conditions (mainly financing and home inspection). With prices expected to increase by mid-2023 and beyond, and a more linear price point expected over Q1/Q2, we may very well have reached or will soon reach the lowest point in our correction. Also, with inflation having barely moved over the past year of BoC rate hikes, some economists are predicting another coming rate hike for January 2023 further reducing the buying power for Canadian homebuyers. Consider taking advantage of lower rates if they are available to you now as well as an opportunity to potentially have conditions in your accepted offer to purchase which was rare at this time last year.
What about new homes?
Many developers have been cautious with bringing their new developments to market in a correcting environment. There are several exciting projects across the county in the works in many stages of approval and servicing. Choose a REALTOR who knows the new construction segment well and can get you the info you need before pre-sales begin. The passing of the new Bill 23 (The More Homes Built Faster Act) is intended to speed the development process, reducing red tape and getting shovels in ground quicker.
You can learn more about Bill 23 here: https://news.ontario.ca/en/backgrounder/1002525/more-homes-built-faster-act-2022
Does all this information apply to everyone?
Real Estate is very difficult to generalize. While averages are great for painting a picture of the general health of the marketplace, many factors are present that determine market value including location, timing/season, pandemic status, condition of home, neighbourhood etc.
I would be happy to sit down with you for a free, no obligation consultation and discuss your specific, unique situation.
Call me at 226-347-6945 or email: steve@steveblais.com
Steve Blais, Sales Representative
Team Angie Goulet and Associates, RE/MAX Preferred Realty Ltd. – Brokerage
*Median Sales Price is when you take all of the sale prices listed in numerical order and pick the price in the exact middle of the list, if there is an even number of sales, it is the average of the two middle prices.
