The statistics are now in from WECAR (The Windsor Essex County Association of REALTORS ®) for August 2023. Happy Back to School everyone! The story in August was certainly lack of inventory, what will September bring, potential further interest rate increases?
The new average sale price for August 2023 was $561,585. That’s a +6.45% increase from this time a year ago and an increase of +1.32% from the previous month (July 2023 average price was $554,277). *(The Median sale price for August 2023 was $512,000 which is a +7.79% increase y/y).
There were 986 new listings in August 2023 compared to 1,049 new listings in July 2023. This was a decrease of -7.855% from the same time last year and a decrease of -6.01% from the previous month.
There were 434 sales in August 2023 compared with 438 sales in July 2023 which was a +3.33% increase compared to a year ago and a decrease of -0.91% from the previous month.
MOST POPULAR HOME STYLES (August 2023)
1st – Bungalow (100) avg price $447,630
2nd – 2 Storey (83) avg price $725,099
3rd – Ranch (70) avg price $658,909
4th – 1.5 Storey (60) avg price $439,667
5th – Raised Ranch (32) avg price $617,168
Wondering what sales activity in your price category looked like in August 2023? here’s the breakdown:
SALES BY PRICE CATEGORY (August 2023)
$0 – $159,900 (1)
$160,000 – $299,999 (40)
$300,000 – $449,999 (152)
$450,000 – $599,999 (131)
$600,000 – $749,999 (70)
$750,000 – $899,999 (34)
$900,000 – $1,199,999 (37)
$1,200,000 – 1,399,999 (1)
$1,400,000 + (6)
If you’re wondering what the August 2023 listings/sales looked like where you live in Essex County, here’s the breakdown:
Listings vs Sales by Area (August 2023)
00 – Windsor, LaSalle, Tecumseh – (List 604 – Sold 271)
10 – Amherstburg – (List 71 – Sold 29)
20 – Colchester / Harrow – (List 25 – Sold 12)
30 – Kingsville- (List 49 – Sold 18)
40 – Leamington – (List 56 – Sold 24)
50 – Wheatley – (List 17 – Sold 3)
60 – Lakeshore West – (List 52 – Sold 21)
70 – Essex – (List 36 – Sold 17)
80 – Lakeshore East – (List 15 – Sold 11)
90 – Tilbury – (List 24 – Sold 14)
Here’s what the average price has looked like for the month of August historically:
2023 – $561,585
2022 – $520,634
2021 – $568,420
2020 – $430,810
2019 – $336,472
2018 – $308,426
2017 – $258,160
2016 – $233,581
Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcements
2023
September 6, 2023 (Target TBA) (TBA)
July 12, 2023 (Target 5.00%) (+0.25%)
June 7, 2023 (Target 4.75%) (+0.25%)
April 12, 2023 (Target 4.50%) (no change)
March 8, 2023 (Target 4.50%) (no change)
January 25, 2023 (Target 4.50%) (+0.25%)
2022
December 7, 2022 (Target 4.25%) (+0.50%)
October 26, 2022 (Target 3.75%) (+0.50%)
September 7, 2022 (Target 3.25%) (+0.75%)
July 13, 2022 (Target 2.50%) (+1.00%)
June 1, 2022 (Target 1.50%) (+0.50%)
April 13, 2022 (Target 1.00%) (+0.50%)
March 2, 2022 (Target 0.50%) (+0.25%)
January 26, 2022 (Target 0.25%) (no change)
Canadian Inflation (Target 2%)
2023
July 2023 (3.3%)
June 2023 (2.8%)
May 2023 (3.4%)
April 2023 (4.4%)
March 2023 (4.3%)
February 2023 (5.2%)
January 2023 (5.9%)
2022
December 2022 (6.3%)
November 2022 (6.8%)
October 2022 (6.9%)
September 2022 (6.9%)
August 2022 (7.0%)
July 2022 (7.6%)
June 2022 (8.1%)
May 2022 (7.7%)
April 2022 (6.8%)
March 2022 (6.7%)
February 2022 (5.7%)
January 2022 (5.1%)
**Is it a Buyer’s or Seller’s Market?**
Depending on the metrics used, we are still looking at a Seller’s and Balanced Market. We are still in a very low inventory state in Windsor/Essex. With an over 7% decrease in new listings compared to a year ago, and even 6% lower than last month in July, we continue to experience many bidding wars, especially on average to lower price point homes. At 2.9 months of inventory, we are lower than this time last year which was 3.3 months of inventory and same as last month. Either way using the months of inventory metric we are still in a “Seller’s Market”.
When considering the Sales to New Listings Ratio metric we sit at 46.3% for August 2023 compared with 41.1% this time last year and 45.9% last month (July 2023). Using this metric, we are currently in a “Balanced Market” however we are getting slightly further away from the point (when we reach below 40%) where this metric points towards a Buyer’s Market.
The summer months certainly did reflect typical summer slowdowns but there is another factor involved. The July 0.25% interest rate increase by the BoC. Buying power has been further reduced due to stress test qualification adjustment and higher payments for variable rate mortgages as well as an increase in fixed-rate mortgage rates. Speculation by some of Canada’s top economists is that we may see another quarter point increase as inflation actually increased last month. Buyers are simply getting less home for their money and for many first-time Buyers this represents some difficulty getting into the market at all without more downpayment or larger incomes.
Listings were down over 7% y/y in August but sales were up over 3% y/y. There is certainly demand but as usual, you can’t sell what you don’t have.
**Is it a good time to sell?**
Inventory continues to be very low. Many would be “move-up” Sellers are finding that due to higher interest rates and home values, combined with limited selection, they are paying more money for the same type of home they already have, let alone moving up. So many will just stay put. This lower inventory is forcing prices to rise as economic conditions and interest rate increases make Canadian life more challenging. Selling while inventory is currently very low may be the smart choice for those thinking of selling in the near future.
**Is it a good time to buy?**
With a lack of inventory and rising home prices it would seem on the surface that it is not a good time for Buyers to get into the market. However, as prices continue to rise and with inventory traditionally thinning out around the end of the year putting pressure on prices further, this may actually be the best time to buy in the near future. As we welcome more people into our area, our population growth is putting pressure on housing which is only likely to increase going forward. Buying or renting, housing is likely to become more expensive. If you can at least get into the market with a home that you like and can afford, even if it’s not your dream home, this may be a better option than renting and you can build equity in the process.
**What about new homes?**
There are a number of exciting new construction projects underway in Windsor/Essex and pricing on many of these new homes are quite reasonable. One of our builders, Lakeland Homes, has just launched new developments in several communities and have inventory available in areas including Amherstburg, Windsor, Cottam, Essex and Lakeshore! Whether you’re after a single-family home or a townhome we have something for everyone. In a resale market plagued with low inventory and often bidding wars, choosing a new home may be the right fit for you! Contact us for more information about our new developments!
**Does all of this information apply to everyone? **
Real Estate is very difficult to generalize. While averages are great for painting a picture of the general health of the marketplace, many factors are present that determine market value including location, timing/season, pandemic status, condition of home, neighbourhood etc. I would be happy to sit down with you for a free, no obligation consultation and discuss your specific, unique situation.
Call me at 226-347-6945 or email: steve@steveblais.com
Steve Blais, Sales representative – RE/MAX Preferred Realty Ltd. – Brokerage
Team General Manager, Team Angie Goulet & Associates
*Median Sales Price is when you take all of the sale prices listed in numerical order and pick the price in the exact middle of the list, if there is an even number of sales, it is the average of the two middle prices.
